Australian Crime Trends and Population Ageing:A Quantified Perspective

Abstract

Given that 15-24 year olds have a higher incidence of criminal involvement than other age groups, structural ageing can be expected to have a profound impact on crime trends. The purpose of this paper is to present preliminary findings from a research project that seeks to quantify the proportion of historical and projected change across the Australian criminal justice system attributable to changes in the population age structure. Major findings are that an age structure/crime pattern does exist, and operates in accordance with offender age profiles and the timing of the onset of demographic change.