Labour Force Projections: A Case Study of the Greater Metropolitan Area of New South Wales
Date
2008Author
Tan, Yan
Lester, Laurence Howard
Richardson, Susan (Sue)
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
There is a fundamental gap in our understanding of the complexity and uncertainty
in projecting and analysing the supply of labour at a regional level, due mainly to
the lack of longitudinal data and difficulties in determining suitable models for
prediction. This study takes the Greater Metropolitan Area (GMA) of New South
Wales as a case study to investigate feasible methods of projecting a regional
workforce. It derives information about trends in employment and workforce status
in the GMA from national and state level time series data. Growth curve models
are then used to project rates of age-sex specific workforce participation, and the
ratios of full-time and part-time employment. Our analysis demonstrates that the
growth curve models and direct projections of workforce elements, especially
participation rates, can provide effective methodologies and techniques to project
the future labour supply at aggregate or regional levels. It provides specific results
and conclusion for the GMA. These results have implications for labour supply
in Australia generally.