Labour Force Projections: A Case Study of the Greater Metropolitan Area of New South Wales

Abstract

There is a fundamental gap in our understanding of the complexity and uncertainty in projecting and analysing the supply of labour at a regional level, due mainly to the lack of longitudinal data and difficulties in determining suitable models for prediction. This study takes the Greater Metropolitan Area (GMA) of New South Wales as a case study to investigate feasible methods of projecting a regional workforce. It derives information about trends in employment and workforce status in the GMA from national and state level time series data. Growth curve models are then used to project rates of age-sex specific workforce participation, and the ratios of full-time and part-time employment. Our analysis demonstrates that the growth curve models and direct projections of workforce elements, especially participation rates, can provide effective methodologies and techniques to project the future labour supply at aggregate or regional levels. It provides specific results and conclusion for the GMA. These results have implications for labour supply in Australia generally.