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dc.contributor.authorThrift, Aaaron P
dc.contributor.authorKendall, Bradley J
dc.contributor.authorPandeya, Nirmala
dc.contributor.authorVaughan, Thomas L
dc.contributor.authorWhiteman, David C
dc.contributor.authorHayward, Nicholas K
dc.contributor.authorParsons, Peter G
dc.contributor.authorPavey, Sandra J
dc.contributor.authorPurdie, David M
dc.contributor.authorGotley, David C
dc.contributor.authorSmithers, B Mark
dc.contributor.authorJamieson, Glyn G
dc.contributor.authorDrew, Paul Anthony
dc.contributor.authorWatson, David Ian
dc.contributor.authorClouston, Andrew
dc.date.accessioned2014-03-11T21:23:27Z
dc.date.available2014-03-11T21:23:27Z
dc.date.issued2012-09
dc.identifier.citationThrift AP, Kendall BJ, Pandeya N, Vaughan TL, Whiteman DC; Study of Digestive Health. A clinical risk prediction model for Barrett esophagus. Cancer Prevention Research (Philadelphia). 2012 Sep;5(9):1115-23.en
dc.identifier.issn1940-6207
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2328/27505
dc.identifier.urihttp://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3750988/
dc.descriptionThe author manuscript of this article is open access and is available at the linked URLen
dc.description.abstractBarrett’s esophagus (BE) is the only known precursor to esophageal adenocarcinoma. As definitive diagnosis requires costly endoscopic investigation, we sought to develop a risk prediction model to aid in deciding which patients with gastroesophageal reflux (GER) symptoms to refer for endoscopic screening for BE. The study included data from patients with incident nondysplastic BE (n=285) and endoscopy control patients with esophageal inflammatory changes without BE (“inflammation controls”, n=313). We used two phases of stepwise backwards logistic regression to identify the important predictors for BE in men and women separately: firstly including all significant covariates from univariate analyses; then fitting non-significant covariates from univariate analyses to identify those effects detectable only after adjusting for other factors. The final model pooled these predictors and was externally validated for discrimination and calibration using data from a BE study conducted in western Washington State, USA. The final risk model included terms for age, sex, smoking status, body mass index, highest level of education, and frequency of use of acid suppressant medications (area under the ROC curve, 0.70, 95%CI 0.66–0.74). The model had moderate discrimination in the external dataset (area under the ROC curve, 0.61, 95%CI 0.56–0.66). The model was well calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, p=0.75), with predicted probability and observed risk highly correlated. The prediction model performed reasonably well and has the potential to be an effective and useful clinical tool in selecting patients with GER symptoms to refer for endoscopic screening for BE.en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherAmerican Association for Cancer Researchen
dc.relationhttp://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/480401en
dc.rights©2012 American Association for Cancer Research.en
dc.subjectBarrett esophagus
dc.subjectRisk
dc.subjectPrediction
dc.titleA clinical risk prediction model for Barrett esophagusen
dc.typeArticleen
dc.relation.grantnumberNHMRC/480401en
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1158/1940-6207.CAPR-12-0010en
dc.rights.holderAmerican Association for Cancer Researchen
local.contributor.authorOrcidLookupDrew, Paul Anthony: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5661-4771en_US
local.contributor.authorOrcidLookupWatson, David Ian: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7683-2693en_US


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